This Washington Examiner article explains that Indiana’s junior senator might have quite the difficult time getting re-elected; he’s currently polling behind Republican challenger Mike Pence 44% to Pence’s 47%. Not a big deal? That’s not their analysis:

The pattern is clear. Evan Bayh is running far behind the way he ran once Indiana voters had a chance to observe his performance as governor, significantly behind the way he ran in his first race for governor, significantly behind his father’s winning percentages in three Senate races and close only to the percentage his father won when he was defeated in the heavily Republican year of 1980, when Ronald Reagan was carrying Indiana over Jimmy Carter by a margin of 56%-38%.

This is where the Obama administration programs and the Senate health care bill, for which Evan Bayh voted, have put an attractive and well-known Democrat who has shown time and again his ability to run far ahead of his party….

Evan Bayh did not win five statewide races in Indiana, a state that tends to favor the other party, by being stupid. Now the question is whether he is smart enough to get himself out of the hole Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have dug for him—and which he was willing, when the Senate had 60 Democrats, to jump in himself.  

Personally, I find it hard to imagine that Bayh loses this race, but then it was impossible that Martha Coakley would lose in MA to Scott Brown, so stranger things have happened.